Business / Decision Modeling

Discussions
1.    Agriculture Problem

Frank Hurley is a farmer with 250 acres on which he wishes to plant wheat and corn to maximize his expected return for the season. For crop rotation purposes he must

plant at least 50 acres of each crop. He can participate in a federal program that will require him to produce at least as much wheat as corn. Under this program, he

is guaranteed to earn $150 per acre of wheat planted and $200 per acre of corn planted. Alternatively, he can opt not to participate in the program, in which case he

projects he would make only $125 per acre of wheat planted and $184 per acre of corn planted. What would you recommend to Frank?
Based on the output, what key points would you recommend to Frank? In 250 words, sequentially list and explain each activity along with the tools needed to develop

your response. (This question is not about the bottom line answer but rather, the solution process, question formulation, data development, output, output explanation,

etc.).
2.    PERT/CPM

You have been asked to fill-in for your boss this week. Your boss’s assistant informs you that he had scheduled an engagement to teach a group of students at the local

University about PERT/CPM approach to project scheduling and has asked that you do it instead. In an initial write-up for the presentation, discuss the key elements of

PERT/CPM to include (but not limited to) assumptions, how it works, and expected outcomes.
3.    Project Scheduling Techniques

Ajax is about to embark on a project involving the design, manufacture and introduction of a new microwave oven.  The first three activities and the immediate

predecessors are:

Activity Predecessor
A       Prototype Design none
B       Acquisition of Materials A
C       Prototype Construction B
However, it has not yet been decided whether the prototype materials will be purchased from a vendor (taking two weeks) or produced in another Ajax division (four

weeks).  What are the implications of this regarding usage of any standard project scheduling technique?
4.    Decision Analysis

Many real-world decision problems consist of a sequence of dependent decisions. Develop a scenario that has a series/sequence of activities applicable to a “Decision

Tree” type analysis. Explain why the scenario you selected is applicable. Also identify and explain critical factors that should be consider. Are there any risks in

your scenario?
5.    Forecasting Approaches

Compare and contrast the stationary forecasting model approach with that of a time series forecasting approach. Identify and explain key factors that are relevant in

the selection of a specific approach.
6.    Queuing Systems

In today’s fast-paced environment, individuals are continually trying to do more with the same limited time constraints. In a retail store like Wal-  Mart, explain how

components of queuing systems can influence customer satisfaction or dissatisfaction. How might the queuing process positively or negatively impact customer loyalty?
7.    Simulation Models

Under what conditions would you choose to use a simulation model? What is the simulation process? Explain the pros and cons of using simulation modeling.
Required Text

Lawrence, J., &Pasternack, B. (2002). Applied management science: Modeling, spreadsheet analysis, and communication for
decision making (2nd ed.) [with accompanying CD-ROM]. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ISBN: 9780471391906
Recommended Website

Classification and Regression Trees. Retrieved from http://www.dtreg.com/classregress.htm
Recommended Readings

The following articles can be found by clicking the Library link in the left navigation bar. Select the appropriate library database from the table and search by

author last name and article title within the database. The best database in which to find each article is listed at the end of the article citation.
Delgado, V.G., Gunter, J.E., &Badiru, A.B. (2004). Comparative study of critical resource diagramming versus PERT and CPM. IIE Annual Conference. Proceedings, 1.

Retrieved from ProQuest Database.
Huang, S., & Yang, F. (2010). Solving transportation network design problem with MARKOV traffic. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 2(6),

9-23. Retrieved from ProQuest Database.
Hymans, S.H. (n.d.).  Forecasting and Econometric Models. The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. Retrieved from

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ForecastingandEconometricModels.html.

LeBlanc, L.J., &Galbreth, M.R. (2007). Implementing large-scale optimization models in Excel using VBA. Interfaces, 37(4), 370-382,396. Retrieved from ProQuest

Database.
Nassar, K. (2004). Using spreadsheets to optimally unbalance a construction bid. Cost Engineering, 46(12), 28-32. Retrieved from ProQuest Database.
Pasupathy, K.S., & Medina-Borja, A. (2008). Integrating Excel, Access, and Visual Basic to deploy performance measurement and evaluation at the American Red Cross.

Interfaces, 38(4), 324-337, 351-352. Retrieved from ProQuest Database.
Yang, J. (2007). How the critical chain scheduling method is working for construction. Cost Engineering, 49(4), 25-32. Retrieved from ProQuest Database.

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